Unvalidated opinions are “bets”, with the caveat that they beget even more “bets” (decisions based on that opinion). So we can say that unvalidated opinions generate other unvalidated opinions based on the original one, therefore creating exponential growth in risk.
The process of validating an opinion (like Popcorn Flow by Claudio Perrone) helps us jump out of the exponential growth spiral at any point in the process, therefore acting as a risk-reducing process.
In short: experiments and validating opinions lead to lower risk and a higher chance of success.
Photo Credit: By Betting Bad (http://press.bettingbad.com/company) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
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