What we often hear from estimators is that estimates are supposed to be “intervals”, not single-point values. This blog post is now a podcast also, narrated by Billy Elchin As usual, they don’t define what “interval” should be. They just say that you have to be “accurate”, but not so “precise”. Ok, let’s explore what …
Estimation and estimates are a dreadful way to run a business. The basic idea is this: Estimates anchor benefits while not limiting your costs at all. Let’s look at this statement in parts. The second part (“estimates don’t limit costs”), is self-evident. Anyone looking at the track record of software projects will see the evidence. …
I was watching a video of @nntaleb on youtube and it became obvious to me why scheduling / estimating is a bad idea for a Software Project. Here’s my take on it. Have you ever been HOURS early arriving from a flight? No. Have you been HOURS late? Sure. Happens all the time. I’m writing …
Project management methodologies involve some kind of estimates on the content of the project (i.e. scope) and effort/duration (i.e. schedule). Simple techniques like WBS (work breakdown structure) with Gantt Charts or more complex techniques like PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) involve estimating the content and ultimately the duration or effort of each of the …
Before we start, I’d like to thank to Neil Killick and Woody Zuill for inspiring this technique with their work. Sit down. Let’s estimate This is not a good start of a meeting for many of us. Asking for estimates may be an easy thing to do, but going through the process of estimating Stories …
Unvalidated opinions are “bets”, with the caveat that they beget even more “bets” (decisions based on that opinion). So we can say that unvalidated opinions generate other unvalidated opinions based on the original one, therefore creating exponential growth in risk. The process of validating an opinion (like Popcorn Flow by Claudio Perrone) helps us jump …
Accidental complication Another reason why estimations can’t work goes by the name of accidental complication. J.B. Rainsberger introduced this concept at Oredev 2013 . The gist of the argument is this: every feature or functionality added to an existing project has two cost elements (what you want to estimate): Essential complication or g(e): How hard …
Are you talking about #NoEstimates at a local or global conference during 2015? Email me at Vasco.Duarte@oikosofy.com. I’ll collect all the #NoEstimates talks and conferences that include the topic right here! Agilia 2015, Brno, Czech Republic Speaker: Henri Karhatsu Topic: #NoEstimates – Going Beyond Estimates Date: March 23rd, 2015 Agile India 2015, Bangalore, India …
One of the questions that I and other #NoEstimates proponents hear quite often is: How can we make decisions on what projects we should do next, without considering the estimated time it takes to deliver a set of functionality? Although this is a valid question, I know there are many alternatives to the assumptions implicit …
You started the project. You spent hours, no: days! estimating the project. The project starts and your confidence in its success is high. Everything goes well at the start, but at some point you find the project is late. What happened? How can you be wrong about estimates? This story very common in software projects. …